This is the part people get backwards. They read a list like this and conclude they picked wrong on day one — so they start on the 10,000-user stack, pay for infrastructure nobody is using, and spend the first six months managing it instead of finding out whether anyone wants the thing.
You are not picking the stack that survives 10,000 users. You are picking the one that gets you to your first hundred, and every tool in the left column is genuinely better at that job than its replacement.
The swap is not a correction. It is a bill arriving, or a limit you hit. Wait for the signal, then move once.
Six change, three stay, and the reason each one moves is a number you can already see on a bill or a limits page. If you cannot point at the signal yet, you are not there — and that is the good news.